This incident seems strange. It seems pretty horrific too. Ammonium nitrate left in a warehouse at the port for six years and it accidentally goes off. That is not an implausible story, let’s be honest. It is possible that fertiliser is imported into a country and it is also possible that it has been left for one reason or another and abandoned. It does happen. But ammonium nitrate is also used as an explosive. It is not implausible that it has intentionally gone off.
Usually in stories like this it’s very quickly pointed out as potentially an act of terror if not jumped on and accused of being so. Unlike other previous events it feels like it is not following the same pattern. The main focus is on the fertiliser and while it is suggested investigations are open into other possibilities, this is not seized on. I have only read the article on the BBC, this could end up being an analysis of the BBC’s reporting or a sign that I’m missing many other angles elsewhere. It just feels notably out of the ordinary in comparison to how these kind of things are usually reported on when covering the Middle East.
It is important to know context with the Lebanon in regards current social and economic issues. While I admit I don’t know in depth, the country is struggling with an arguably failed economy. I’m sure I remember reading that they were on the verge of defaulting as a country for the first time which would be a massive thing. The pandemic and subsequent global economic lockdown has only exacerbated the situation. There are currently protest although I am unsure on what scale. I don’t quite know the political structure of the country but I know Hezbollah, who were elected democratically it is often forgotten and ignored, are in power but I’m sure also the Prime Minister and his ministers are not Hezbollah, so perhaps there are two system within one. The regional political situation is that they are strong allies with Iran and that the Israelis seem to be fighting Hezbollah on and off, who are also deemed a terrorist organisation in the west, yet not fighting with Lebanon, or at least that is the narrative. With all that in mind the Israelis have had to distance themselves already, but have also offered food and humanitarian aid along with offers from Boris Johnson and Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State. It’s fair to say these are ominous gestures you would be cautious of accepting.
All of which make this feel eerily calm, almost like we’re waiting for something to happen. Maybe it also means that it genuinely was an accidental explosion of fertiliser and it has caught everyone, the Lebanese, the Western powers and the media off guard. All scrambling for an as yet unknown and too sudden line to follow. The next twenty-four hours will reveal the immediate direction it’ll take as events unfold, parts of the truth come out and the death toll becomes clear. No matter what does arise, one thing is clear, it is an horrific event either way.
Observations and Misunderstandings 